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The Rise & Rise of iOS World

About the author

Mike Elgan

Mike Elgan is a Silicon Valley-based writer, columnist and blogger, covering technology and culture

When the first iOS gadget shipped in 2007, The New York Times’ David Pogue published a list of questions about the new iPhone. The last question on the list was: “Who on earth would buy this thing?” It’s a question nobody would ask today. The phone, and Apple ‘s other mobile devices that run the iOS are succeeding beyond anyone’s predictions. Apple says the iOS is currently installed on more than 200 million devices.

Another small thing happened in 2007 that has become a big thing: Apple filed a patent request for the capacitive touch screen used by the iPhone, iPad and, in fact, by nearly all of Apple’s competitors in the market. That patent was recently granted. One possible outcome of the inevitable court cases to come is that competitors may have to pay Apple a licensing fee for every non-Apple smartphone or tablet shipped.

Since its 2007 launch, there has always been a lot of hype around the iPhone far beyond actual market share. The many brands that run the Android OS collectively own more market share both globally and in the US than the iPhone. And internationally, handsets from giants like Nokia have maintained more sales than those from Apple.

But all this appears to be changing. In the first quarter of this year, Android phone market share declined nearly 3 percent, while iOS’s share rose by more than 12 percent. Android still has nearly half the smartphone market, and Apple significantly less than that.

Another possible trend is the decline and fall of Nokia. That company’s smartphone handset market share dropped from 24 to 16 percent in one year while Apple’s remained at 17 percent.

In 2007, nobody predicted that Apple would sell more handsets worldwide than Nokia within four years. All these market share numbers mask a stark business reality: Apple makes vastly more money from mobile devices than its competitors.

Firstly, Apple makes money from handsets, which Google no longer sells. Secondly, Apple makes money from apps — far more per app than any other platform, and far more apps. For example, last year Google earned about $102 million from apps sales, while Apple raked in $1.7 billion. Apple’s iOS is even more profitable than Microsoft Windows — 2.3 times higher.

The success of iOS devices is nothing compared with what’s coming. A report says Apple has ordered two manufacturers to build enough iPhone 5 handsets to sell 15 million in the first sales month.The new phone may be launch in August or September. A reasonably credible rumor from a blogger in China says that China’s biggest carrier, China Mobile, will soon announce a deal to sell the iPhone 5. Such an announcement would suggest a radical increase in iPhone sales in the world’s most populous country, and one with an incredible 910 million mobile phone subscribers, where the iPhone is very popular.

Apple dominates the tablet market, having sold 25 million iPads to date and possibly over 14 million more iPads in the third quarter. But one analyst believes Apple will sell a billion of them. Apple comes to dominate mobile computing, mobile computing increasingly dominates computing in general.

Over the next five years, we’ll see more people using phones and tablets as their main computing device. And I think we can also expect to see current desktop platforms like Mac OS X, Windows and Linux replaced by touch-friendly interfaces like iOS, Android, Metro and so on. In other words, Apple’s iOS is poised to take over mainstream computing.